Beyond the 'Crisis State' on Superphysics

Introduction

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INTRODUCTION

The Past As Present

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A top columnist in a leading American newspaper recently described Pakistan as ‘Paranoidistan’—‘a state that suspects every U.S. move as weakening Pakistan for the benefit of a secret U.S. alliance with India.

The Islamic Shift

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Pakistan remained a relatively liberal and moderate Muslim state until the 1970s.

The loss of the eastern wing in 1971 transformed the Pakistani psyche. Apart from subverting the ’two-nation’ theory, a humiliating military defeat by India took a hefty toll on national pride. Unaccustonied to learning from history and more comfortable with myths of an imagined past, Pakistanis were susceptible to the Islamist charge that the ruling elite’s lack of religiosity had caused the country’s disintegration.

Why Jinnah Matters

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The debate about the nature and character of the Pakistani state is most intense today.

Some still voice the demand for a theocratic state. The Pakistani Taliban is the most extreme expression of this. But more mainstream religious groups also call for the rule of the Shari’a.

Babar vs Jinnah

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Babar-poet, autobiographer, loyal friend and devoted father—was perhaps too triumphalist for Mountbatten.

But Mountbatten had made a blunder. In suggesting Akbar, Mountbatten was clearly unaware of the impression he was conveying.

The Protection of Non-Muslims

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Acceptance of minorities is another theme in his speeches.

Jinnah had regularly reminded his Muslim audience of what Islam maintains: ‘our own history and our Prophet have given the clearest proof that non Muslims have been treated not only justly and fairly but generously’.

Why Pakistan Will Survive

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I don’t dispute that these are hard times.

Thousands of us died last year in terrorist attacks.
Hundreds of thousands were displaced by military operations.
Most of us don’t have access to decent schools.
Inflation is squeezing our poor and middle class.
Millions are, if not starving, hungry.

Even those who can afford electricity don’t have it half the day.

Questions of Identity

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Recently, I’ve heard it said that the insurmountable problem with Pakistan is that we don’t have a national identity.

I think national identity is overrated.

I chose to move back to Pakistan after many years abroad.

Beyond The Crisis State

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Pakistan is at the crossroads of its political destiny. It can either remain trapped in a quagmire of weak governance, politics-as-usual, economic stagnation and crumbling public faith in state institutions; or it can take advantage of social changes underway to chart a new course.

Governance Challenges

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Chronic instability and an oligarchic-dominated political order impeded the evolution of modern governance.

Patronage-based politics practiced by democratic and military governments alike relied on working networks of influential political families, clans or kinship groups (biradaries) to maintain themselves in power.

Clientelist Politics

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The personalised nature of politics is closely related to the dominant historical position by a narrowly-based political elite that was feudal and tribal in origin.

It shares power with well-to-do urban groups, epitomised by the rise of Mian Nawaz Sharif who came from a mercantile background.*

The Politics of 'Borrowed Growth'

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This has been the inescapable consequence of rule by an oligarchic elite that has been unwilling to mobilise resources, preferring ‘pain-free’ ways of managing public finances.

The successive civilian and military governments have lived beyond their means. They are a privilegentsia that is averse eroding its position or corporate interests.

The Politics of 'Borrowed Growth'

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Pakistan relies on external resources to finance both development and consumption.

This was facilitated by foreign aid.

Cold War assistance accompanied Pakistan’s close alliance with the US.

In the 1980s, Western aid paid for Pakistan’s pivotal role in resisting the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.

National Unity Tested by Regional and Religious Pressures '

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Religion and regionalism have persistently tested both the nature and purpose of the state.

Religion and regionalism would perhaps not have been such enduring sources of discord had efforts to meet the economic and social needs of its people succeeded.

National Unity Tested by Regional and Religious Pressures '

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Political Islam declined due to:

electoral politics in the 1990s
the post-Musharraf democratic era.

But it gave way to a more dangerous phenomenon-militant Islam.

Militancy was born from the jihad against the Russians.

National Unity Tested by Regional and Religious Pressures '

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Washington and London needed Musharraf’s continued leadership for their ‘War on Terror’ and for pacifying Afghanistan.

But by himself he could neither assure stability nor mobilise public support for the fight against terror.

National Unity Tested by Regional and Religious Pressures '

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After Musharaff ended, the PPP resisted to restoring Chaudhry and 60 other judges because they would re-open corrnption cases against top PPP leaders.

President Zardari held an office that ostensibly provided him immunity from judicial proceedings but he appeared unsure whether Chaudhry and his team of judges would accept this legal position.

Army And Politics

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Pakistan is a prisoner of its geography and history.

It is significant because of its strategic location:

at the cusp of the Middle East. the Persian Gulf, South Asia
at the door of Central Asia and China

Its proximity to India:

Today's Insurgency

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Today, Pakistan is a partner of the West in the global war against militancy and terror.

Its Army is operating in a changed and highly charged domestic political environment.

Its 2 leading parties are:

Army vs. Civil Hierarchy

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Even two-time former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif shook his head when asked by me if he knew about the application of the Warrant of Precedence during his terms in office.

Army vs. Civil Hierarchy

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Penetration of Civil Society

Another visible manifestation of military domination of the civil sector during the Musharraf period was the re-employment of retired or even serving officers in civil institutions and in the host of military-owned enterprises that provides a longer term of employment for army officers.

Praetorians And The People

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Two contradictory trends emerged after Pakistan’s post-February 2008 election:

Political continuity – the third and fourth generations of the traditional feudal, tribal, religious and business families are entering the political arena.

The Bureaucratic Elite

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Second Trend: The Bureaucratic Elite

The second visible trend is the changing composition, orientation and educational background of the bureaucracy.

The Pakistan civil service-the pivotal pillar of governance and until the 1980s the backbone of administration-is now plagued by institutional decline and a crisis of moral authority. Unlike the first three decades after Pakistan’s independence it no longer attracts the best and the brightest that instead prefer to go in to business and other private sector professions.

6 Reasons why coalition politics may lead to a multi-party system

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In spite of these worrying trends, there are 6 reasons why coalition politics may lead to the development of a multi-party system.

The three major political parties, the PPP, PML-N and ANP, were quick to build a consensus against President Musharraf. But the parties differed in their approach to his removal from office.

The PML-N was vocal in demanding Musharraf’s removal (and are currently demanding his trial) and the reinstatement of the judges, while the PPP was less confrontational and searched for ways to define a basis for a workable relationship with Musharraf. The PPP also wished to dilute the issue of the restoration of the judges, which strained the coalition, as the PML- N’s expectation was that the judges would be promptly restored. When that did not happen, the PML-N’s ministers resigned from the coalition and the party withdrew from the government.

Ideologically Adrift

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What role has Islam played in Pakistan’s evolution? Has the issue of religion that has been used for multiple objectives-from nation building to strategic security-produced a deadly blowback that is now confronting Pakistan with unprecedented challenges?

Ideologically Adrift

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Bhutto’s Islamic Socialism

The task of defining this new narrative fell to Zulfikar Ali Bhutto—the first civilian politician to rule Pakistan after nearly fifteen years of army rule.

Having formed the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) only four years earlier, Bhutto ascended to power on a populist platform embodied in the slogan ‘roti [bread], kapra [cloth], makan [house]’. Like his predecessors Bhutto had to wrestle with questions of Islam and ideology. Some contemporary commentators pointed out that the separation of East Pakistan had resulted in a more compact entity where Islam was presumably no longer needed to bind the state. Unity could have derived from a robust democratic process accommodating political and ethnic differences and looking toward ‘geological, geographic, ethnic, and historic grounds for regarding the Indus Valley and its western and northern mountain marches as a distinct national unit separate from the rest of South Asia.’ The Islamic parties, however, vociferously attacked Bhutto and his socialist ideology as a threat to Islam. Bhutto settled on the concept of ‘Islamic socialism’ as his defining manifesto to stave off his critics on the religious right and to create a new national narrative that promisingly leveraged core Islamic principles of justice, equity, and poverty alleviation to tackle a developing nation’s fundamental socio- economic challenges.

Decade of Instability

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Decade of Instability

Upon the demise of General Zia in 1988, Pakistan entered a tumultuous decade of political instability, near bankruptcy, international isolation, and a hardening jihadi culture—a period during which it remained dangerously adrift.

Battling Militancy

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Pakistan today faces a growing threat from violent extremists and Islamic militants.

This reflects:

the fallout of the continuing war in Afghanistan
the limited gains achieved both by the US and Pakistan against al Qaeda
the increasingly violent activism of longer established organisations

As militant violence in Pakistan has escalated, it has grown in numbers and in sophistication.

Jamiat Ulema-e-Hind

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JUI had its origin in the Jamiat Ulema-e-Hind which was founded by a group of clerics of the Deobandi Muslim movement in pre-partition India.

This movement for Islamic revival:

had first emerged after the 1857 rebellion against British rule.
was a branch of Sunni Hanafi Islam
was primarily an anti-British movement

Their creed is named after a religious seminary established in 1867 in Deoband near Delhi.

Hellfire Missiles

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Over the past few years, several militant leaders have been killed in operations conducted by Pakistani military and CIA drone strikes.

But they have been quickly replaced by new and more aggressive successors.

Retooling Institutions

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In the last two decades theoretical and empirical evidence have offered a new insight: that broader socio-economic development including the distribution of the benefits of growth is determined by the quality of governance and institutions.

Retooling Institutions

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Restructuring Federal, Provincial and District Governments

Two significant historic structural changes have taken place under the PPP-led coalition government in 2008.

Powers and functions on the concurrent list under the constitution have been transferred to the Provinces making provincial autonomy a more meaningful and operational concept.

An Economic Crisis State?

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The Pakistan economy was a trend-setter in Asia up to the 1960s. It has steadily deteriorated and has lurched from one financial crisis to the next.

At the heart of the problem has been the poor management of public finances and deep-seated unresolved structural issues in the economy that bad management and poor governance has exacerbated.

From Aid-Fuelled Growth to Volatility

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Zia’s regime represented the second episode of aid-fuelled growth after Pakistan became a ‘front-line’ state with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.

His economic policies were unremarkable.

The economy was kept on a stable path thanks to the ultra-conservative approach of Ghulam Ishaq Khan.

Shifting Sands

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General Musharraf acknowledged that he did not know economics.

But he was a good listener, loved long-winded, coloured power-point presentations and he learnt well. As usual, given the precarious state of the economy with low foreign exchange reserves, Pakistan entered into an IMF program, which took the shape of a three-year highly concessional Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) with high access. Despite the arrangement, foreign exchange reserves initially continued to hover at the very low level of USD1-1.7 billion.

Ownership of Reforms

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Pakistan needs many macroeconomic and structural reforms.

These have been unfulfilled even after 63 years and many failed IMF programs.

Pakistan’s record of taking reform steps and then rolling them back had earned it the sobriquet of ‘stop-start adjustment’.

Macroeconomic Reform Agenda

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Pakistan needs to realise that macroeconomic stability and an environment of low inflation is pro-growth and pro-poor.

No country has grown at a strong and steady pace while it is being buffeted with macroeconomic instability and high and variable inflation. The Asian Tigers succeeded in bringing poverty levels to the low teens by the determined implementation of pro-growth policies that simultaneously kept inflationary pressures in check. Bringing inflation down and keeping it down should be the government’s highest priority since it will foster growth, reduce inter-personal tensions and alleviate poverty. Inflation is often called the ‘cruellest tax of all’ because it hurts disproportionately those who can least afford to bear it or to offset it as the rich are most enabled to do.

Postscript: The Great Flood of 2010

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The Great Flood in the summer of 2010 caused widespread damage to the economy, especially to major and minor crops and the livestock sector. Irrigation, transport and power sectors were also badly hurt. Manufacturing was for the most part spared by the ferocity of the flood. The World Bank and Asian Development Bank’s estimate of the flood damage was around USD10 billion. What all this means for the economy going forward is difficult to tell but a plausible scenario can be sketched out.

Postscript: The Great Flood of 2010

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Over the last two decades Pakistan has had the resilience to survive against all odds. How can it succeed is the main topic of this chapter.

Despite its many challenges, during this period, Pakistan has grown at an average rate of over five per cent. As a country with a population of 175 million people today, it is important to understand that 99 per cent of the fabric of a diverse and rich culture and people can and do make a difference.

Where Does Pakistan Stand Globally?

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Any country that wants to succeed in the global economy needs to closely study competition, not to mimic but to understand how other countries have identified what works for them and how to benchmark themselves with what others do globally.

Improve Governance and Infrastructure

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Improve Governance

The problems of governance stem from the inability of governments and public sector institutions to deliver public services in the face of rising demands and expectations.

Without improved governance, delivery systems and effective implementation, Pakistan will find it difficult to:

Boost Exports

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Pakistan has never had a consistent, coherent and well articulated export-focused growth strategy.

Exports are often treated as a residual after-thought once the domestic market has been catered for. This is inexplicable given that the country has had a persistently large trade deficit, which has been increasingly difficult to finance each year.

Define a Coherent Exchange Rate Policy

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A ‘stable’ exchange rate is a reflection of how ‘well’ the economy is being managed.

Governments frequently intervene in exchange rate management matters and ask that the exchange rate is kept stable in nominal terms or only fluctuates around a tight band.

Control Inflation

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There is growing consensus among central bankers that medium- to long-term price stability is the overriding goal of monetary policy.

Research has shown that maintaining low and stable inflation has helped economies to grow, as businesses, households and individual consumers are able to make better investment, savings and wage contract decisions. If inflation gets out of control either due to an over heating of the economy or supply side factors, central banks have generally resorted to monetary tightening as a means to control inflation.

Turning Energy Around

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Pakistan’s energy sector is in crisis.

Power outages of up to 18 hours a day disrupt the lives of people and threaten the economy in an unprecedented way.

Despite abundant installed capacity, the power system is mired in critical operational issues including a pervasive circular debt.

Pakistan's Energy Resource Potential

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Pakistan’s energy resource potential is substantial and remains largely unharnessed although not all of it is currently financially or technically exploitable.

This potential is in the form of depleting fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal) as well as renewables (hydro, solar, wind, wood fuels and agricultural residues). Among fossil fuels, in the petroleum (oil and gas) sub-sector, Pakistan has a large prospective area (or, in geological language, sedimentary basin) covering 830,000 square kilometres. Probable reserves are estimated at twenty-seven billion barrels of oil and 282 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas.

Integrated Energy Planning

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Energy analysts and policy-makers alike agree that energy sector planning and policy formulation need to be carried out on an integrated basis. The appropriate mechanism to achieve this is known by various acronyms.

How Integrated Energy Planning Can Address Pakistan's Special Issues

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Several issues in Pakistan’s energy sector, similar to those found in other parts of the developing world have been discussed earlier. IEP provides an analytical platform to address these and to test out the efficacy of a range of policy options. Some other special issues are dealt with below.

Education as a Strategic Imperative

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Education lies at the heart of Pakistan’s multiple challenges.

If Pakistan is to emerge as a stable, moderate polity reaping dividends from its burgeoning population it must be able to provide the young both:

Education Failing to deliver quality

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Stage 2: Failure to deliver quality

Pakistan’s education sector is anomalous in that it has three parallel and largely unconnected systems of education operating simultaneously. These are the public and non elite private schools, the elite private schools, and the religious seminaries—the madrasahs. Approximately 67% of the school going children are enrolled in public schools, close to 29% are in private schools—the majority of these are in the non-elite variant—and 4% attend madrasahs (see table 2). The three systems follow their own curricula, teaching methods, and examination processes. Consequently, quality of education and the type of student body in each vary greatly. Only the public education system is fully regulated by the government.

Reversing Failure

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Inability to reverse these failures will not only limit Pakistan’s economic growth but carries the potential of rupturing the very fabric of society though polarisation and unrest.

While there is very little hard evidence for education having contributed directly to terrorism in Pakistan, anecdotal evidence combined with profiles of most actors involved in terrorist attacks does suggest a linkage. Indeed, it would be naive to believe an absence of any correlation. The mechanisms through which this connection would be playing out are aptly described by Winthrop and Graff (2010) as:

Pakistan As A Nuclear State

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Has the advent of nuclear weapons calmed down anxieties and brought about a level of national confidence in Pakistan to enable the state to meet other challenges?

What role do nuclear weapons play in a nation’s destiny? The 1998 nuclear test ought to have reinforced a simple lesson for security thinkers in South Asia. It should focus national leadership into calming crises and preventing wars.

The 1998 Nuclear Tests

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In the spring of 1998, for the first time in India’s history, Hindu nationalist parties under the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) received a plurality of the national vote.

They had a mandate to declare India as a nuclear power and push their traditional hard line on Pakistan.

Operational Deterrent

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Musharraf took over as Army Chief in October 1998 in tense regional and domestic circumstances.

Pakistan was under international sanctions because of the nuclear tests.

Relations with India were tense due to the ongoing Kashmir uprising and arrival of the Hindu nationalist party.

Emerging Force Postures

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Pakistani anxiety did not dissolve even after demonstrating its nuclear weapon capability in 1998.

India’s conventional forces and its advancing nuclear capability continue to make Pakistan vulnerable to Indian coercion.

Reversing Strategic 'Shrinkage'

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Pakistan has been a strategically challenged since it was created.

It faces hostility from India; gross
It has:
- inadequacies in the military and financial and bureaucratic structures
- a huge refugee influx.

Pakistan survived those early years due to:

Reviving the Economy

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For 4 consecutive years until 2007, Pakistan recorded encouraging but uneven economic growth.

The political turmoil of the following 2 years, mounting terrorist attacks, erosion of business confidence and the impact of the concurrent global economic crisis pushed the Pakistan economy into a severe and fundamental crisis.

The Afghan Conundrum

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In Afghanistan: a war going in the wrong direction, a fatally flawed election, reconstruction at a standstill and a growing political vacuum that the Taliban is filling even as some NATO countries contemplate withdrawing their troops.

The Difficult Road Back to Strategic Assertion

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Washington and its allies was able to act so blatantly against Pakistan’s national interests because of:

the domestic vulnerability weakness of Pakistani leaders
their complete dependence on the US for survival

This did not end with the change of government in 2008.

The Conventional Military Balance

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Pakistan has an effective conventional defence capability against India, due to:

better strategic planning and acquisitions, mainly from China
lethargy and mistakes in India’s defence acquisition and development programmes.

However, India has embarked on a major arms build-up which includes plans to acquire 120 plus advanced strike aircraft, nuclear submarines, AWACs (Airborne Warning and Control systems), antiballistic missiles, satellite and space capabilities.

The Obama Administration and Pakistan

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Immediately on assuming office, President Barack Obama conducted several rapid reviews of policy towards Afghanistan and Pakistan and unveiled his first plan on 27 March 2009.

The new policy promised major attention to be paid to what was now termed Af-Pak and the region.

The India Factor

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Can Pakistan and India move away from their enduring rivalry and make peace?

Can the shadow of the November 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks be removed by sustained diplomatic engagement between the two countries?

Nuclearisation and Impact of 9/11

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On May 11 and 13 1998, India conducted 5 nuclear tests codenamed ‘Shakti’ and proclaimed it to be a nuclear weapon state. They created a great sense of alarm in Pakistan.